GLIMPSES OF THE FUTURE
A monthly digest of technologies, developments and trends that will shape our lives. (If you would prefer not to receive these digests, flip back 'NO THANKS' and you will be removed from the list).
Living Longer: The Number of Very Old People Is Growing Exponentially
Much is being written about both the exponential development of information technology and the likelihood of humans achieving extreme longevity (see Ray Kurzweil’s site). The two trends are closely linked. Now researchers have revealed that the number of really old people is also growing exponentially.
The exponential increase in the number of those living to 100 years started just after World War II. The first cases of validated supercentenarians (those over 100 years old) appeared in the 1960s, and their numbers have steadily increased since the mid-1980s. Now the number of known supercentenarians in the developed world is approximately ten times higher than it was in the mid-1970s.
In roughly twenty years, from 1980 to 2000, the maximum reported age at death, which was once assumed to indicate the maximum human life span and seen as a stable characteristic of our species, has increased by about ten years from 112 to 122 years. A ‘given’ lifespan is no longer a stable characteristic of our species. Expect to see authenticated lifespans of 130+ in the next twenty years. After that…
It's Really Difficult For A Futurologist To Stay Ahead
When I wrote my novel Extinction in 2002-4 I described Earth-orbit sun reflectors and deep-space sun-shades that my imaginary society of 2055 had deployed to manage away the worst effects of global warming.
Now The New York Times reports that similar ideas are already being seriously considered to tackle the effects of climate change. That's great, so long as they are ready for the law of unintended consequences which, in my book, has rather serious repercussions (the clue's in the title).
Desktop Publishing Comes To Mobile Phones
The 'device formerly known as the mobile phone' now has a whole library of downloadable fonts available. Monotoype has announced a range of scaleable fonts that are specially designed for small screens. This will make web display much easier on mobiles. Next we’ll have Quark XPress and Adobe Photoshop running in our palms.
Meanwhile, the evolving ‘phone’ now serves as the ‘main camera’ for half the world’s population – according to Nokia (now the world’s largest camera manufacturer). The company also says that two-thirds of phone users expect to replace their dedicated MP3 players with a music-playing phone and half want to make their ‘phone’ hook up to household electronic equipment so that they become a single universal remote control.
Re-Growing Organs Inside Our Bodies
Twenty years ago I forecast that medicine would one day enable humans to re-grow lost or damaged parts of their bodies (autogenesis).
Many species, notably amphibians and certain fish, can regenerate a wide variety of their body parts. The salamander can regenerate its limbs, its tail, its upper and lower jaws, the lens and the retina of its eye, and its intestine. The zebra fish will regrow fins, scales, spinal cord and part of its heart.
Even humans have some power of regeneration. There are reports that the tip of the human finger can occasionally be regenerated, if the cut is above the last joint. And people can vigorously repair damage to the liver. Even after 75 percent has been removed in surgery, the liver regains its original mass in two to three weeks.
Recent hope in the new field of ‘regenerative medicine’ has focused on stem cell research, but researchers at Oregon State University (OSU) have made an important first step in discovering how existing cells can be made to grow.
Chemical engineers at OSU have shown in recent studies that hydrogel implants can be used to deliver chemicals called growth factors to living tissues; can help regulate the rate at which those factors get released into the tissue to encourage controlled, localized blood vessel growth; and that delivery of multiple growth factors can help the resulting blood vessels mature into functional structures.
The concept is to help the body repair tissue or organ damage, or grow new tissue, with possible applications in everything from burns victims to nerve damage or heart disease.
See also a separate story about miraculous mutant mice which can already regrow their own body parts.
Sex Games In The Cyber Zone
Of course sex will migrate to the virtual domain (the best parts of the activity are inside our heads anyway).
At a conference last month visitors were given a glimpse of what happens when video games and porn converge. Included in the demonstration was Virtually Jenna which allows users to do anything to an avatar of porn star Jenna Jameson; a Japanese anime game called Xchange features a boy transformed into a girl who indulges in exotic adventures while trying to turn back into a boy; and in Second Life, a virtual role-playing game with no set rules, an estimated 30 per cent of in-world commerce is related to sexual activity.
The conference also introduced a wild concept for mobile erotica gamers: a cellphone sex game developed by Goma Systems features tiny Sims-like characters engaging in as many sexual positions as possible. Hetero and homosexual versions will also be created.
Meanwhile a German inventor claims to have created the world's most sophisticated robotic sex doll.
The sex androids developed by aircraft mechanic Michael Harriman from Nuremberg have 'hearts' that beat faster during sex.
They also breathe harder and have internal heaters to raise the body temperature - but their feet stay cold 'just like in real life,' according to Harriman. He added: "They are almost impossible to distinguish from the real thing, but I am still developing improvements and I will only be happy when what I have is better than the real thing."
The dolls sold under the Andy brand name are on offer for £4,000 each for the basic model, with extra charges for adaptations like extra large breasts.
The model can also be made to move by remote control, wiggling her hips under the bedclothes and making other suggestive movements - all at the touch of a button.
Harriman said his design was an improvement on the popular 'real dolls' sold in the USA.
An alternative version of a sex robot can be seen here.
Navigation On Mobile Phones
In last month's 'Glimpses' I suggested that the life-span of dedicated navigation aids would be limited.
Now a new report suggests that shipments of phone-based personal navigation devices in Europe and the US will reach twelve million units by 2009.
The first successful marriages of cellular and navigation technologies was achieved in late 2005, resulting in shipments of around one million systems, mainly in the fourth quarter. Supported by the phenomenal growth recorded in the personal navigation device (PND) segment, sales of handset-based personal navigation systems are expected to grow by 86 percent year-on-year.
Indian Economic Growth Attributed To Mobile Phones
Still on mobile 'phones' (which is where most of the action is at present) the number of mobile phone users in India has just topped 100 million. Over the last year the media has identified India as the second great economic powerhouse emerging alongside China. The two events are not unconnected.
'The mobile revolution has completely transformed the economic landscape of this country,' said Dayanidhi Maran, India's Minister of Communications and Information Technology last month. 'This revolution, in turn, has led to improved economic growth and has played a key role in the success of the Indian reforms and liberalisation process.'
India has the lowest mobile phone tariffs in the world - a point not to be overlooked.
Told You So! 3G Is A Success
I've had more disagreements about the future of 3G mobile telephony than I have on almost any other technology topic. Following the disastrous auctions of 3G spectrum in the UK and other parts of Europe in 2001, most critics wrote the technology off. I have always believed it has a great future. Now the figures are in.
100 million people around the globe are now using 3G technology on their mobile phones. 3G-user momentum is ramping up with a strong operator push complementing a rich portfolio of handsets. This is according to the telecommunications research group, Strategy Analytics.
Google Does Payments and Micropayments
As this issue of 'Glimpses' was about to be distributed, reports were circulating that Google will launch new software called GBuy on June 28th. See more at SearchEngineWatch.
GBuy will be a secure payments system similar to eBay's PayPal and through GBuy, merchants will be able to enrol in a system that enables customers to complete purchases using a Google payment system.
While it could potentially steal market share in the online payment world from PayPal - a market the eBay subsidiary now dominates - the system would give Google highly valuable data about shoppers' purchasing habits, information it could use to better refine search results and targeted ads.
Essentially, GBuy would take a service already available to the relatively small number of users who are shopping within Google Base and extend it to the Web through Google search, which reaches millions every day.
I have long insisted that micropayments are the future of commerce on the web and Google's entrance via Gbuy will further boost the already booming online economy.
And Finally - 'Daft of Europe' Embarrasses Himself With Proposed Euro Tax On Email And Text Messages
A tax of €0.0000001 per email and text message has been proposed by French Euro MEP Alain Lamassoure, a member of the Budgets Committee of the European Parliament.
"This is peanuts but, given the billions of transactions every day, it could still raise an immense income," Lamassoure told Reuters. "Exchanges between countries have ballooned, so everyone would understand that the money to finance the EU should come from the benefits engendered by the EU."
Lamassoure reportedly wants to be able to reduce national contributions to the EU budget through the measure. Lamassoure is on a working group looking at budgetary issues. He is a member of the centre-right European People's Party, the largest coalition of parties in the Parliament.
Later Lamassoure issued a statement backing off from the idea of taxing emails and texts and made it clear that he was speaking for himself and not for the Budgets Committee. And those of us in Europe pay for these idiots!