I use the term 'futurologist' about myself with more than a little touch of irony.
How can there be an 'ology' - a science - of studying the future? The concept is oxymoronic - a contradiction in terms - rather like 'military intelligence' or 'European harmony.'
One of the reasons that I use such a pompous and faintly ridiculous word to describe my research is that I wish to highlight the most difficult problem that confronts those of us who contemplate things yet to come: We have no language for the future.
In particular, we have no language for the technological future and where there is no language, there can be no thought.
Recognising this difficulty, I do indeed study current trends in human affairs in the hope of divining which may affect the future most powerfully and I use my writing, both fiction and non-fiction, as a laboratory in which I can try out my ideas.
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Here's a video clip from Sky News following the recent discovery of water on the planet Mars.
And (for fun) here's a video clip from 1984:
A Futurologist's Musings
Have you noticed that Google is getting smarter by the day? Read The Awkening Global Brain to see what's going on.
And, on the subject of emergent global intelligance, read a scene from 'Emergence', written in 1999, on the subject of smart companions.
On the way to global network consciouness, there are going to be many new forms of wealth generated in business. Read 'Intellectual Capital', a chapter from my forthcoming non-fiction book, 'Exponential Business.'
Back to the topic of machine intelligence; in The Cloud I imagined how some parts of society might react to intelligent humanoid 'baby dolls' being marketed and sold.
Read recent issues of my monthly newsletter, Glimpses of the Future.
A cartoon by Noel Ford that appeared following publication of The World In 2030, a book that was sponsored by the industry association PlasticsEurope.
In case you wondered, the Oxford English Dictionary defines 'Futurology' as:
"The forecasting of the future on a systematic basis, especially by the study of present day trends in human affairs."
The OED credits Aldous Huxley with being the first to use the term (in 1946).
Getting It Right (And Wrong)
It takes a long time to test a futurologist's predictions. Here's a list of the things I have got right in the last 25 years (and a few of the things I got wrong).
Predictions I Seem To Have Got Right:
1) From The On-Line Handbook (1984):
"The linking of computers around the world is going to have far reaching effects, and the spread of knowledge, the interchange of ideas and the dissemination of information are going to produce a revolution in our society.
"The moment you go on-line you feel as though the revolution has sprung down the telephone line and invaded your own room.
"You will know what the wired world is like and you will begin to understand the implications! You become a pioneer of the information age, experiencing with awe the power of linked computers which the next generation will take for granted."
2) From Forward 100 (1984):
"It is the astonishing spread of personal computing power that is causing the greatest separation of the West from the Soviet bloc. The imbalance of nuclear arms is the usual factor considered in the context of the balance of power, but either the Soviet Union has not seen the computer revolution coming or, more likely, the rulers have realized that the spread of personal computing power will make their territory ungovernable in the traditional sense.
"Whatever the reason, while the majority of Westerners buy computers and go on-line, creating an electronic matrix around the world, the majority of Soviet citizens have never seen a computer.
"Writing in Izvestiya, Anatoily P. Aleksandrov, the president of the Soviet Academy of Sciences, has claimed that Russia is failing to make use of even the small amount of computer equipment it manufactures. The main problem, Aleksandrov states, is a lack of awareness of the potential of computers among the population at large. He compares the problem of overcoming this deficiency as a task comparable with 'eliminating illiteracy' after the Bolshevik revolution. In the West, a major thrust of the computer revolution has taken place in tiny free-enterprise ventures, and this massive head start is likely to have very profound effects on the future balance between the world's main ideologies."
3). From The On-Line Handbook (1984):
"On-line advertising has one advantage over all other media: it is very selective.
"It is wasteful to advertise a new movie to people interested in motorcycles, because the advertiser can't be sure whether or not the searcher watches films.
"But if the ads are shown only to those enquiring about film reviews (and equally motocycle ads go only to those searching motorcycle topics) then the advertising is targetted directly to the correct group.
"This is cost-effective and powerful and most commercial databases in the future will carry some level of advertising."
4). From The Musician and the Micro (1982)
"The computer will liberate the music in all of us. There is no longer the need for years of piano practice, agonized months of violin scrapings and the deliberate cultivation of finger-tip calluses. The computer will take over the mechanical parts of the job and allow us to make melody, to sing, allowing the music to pour forth."
5).From Forward 100 (1984)
"Before long, readers who wish to examine any topic will do so using an eletronic source: for example, this text might be stored on a database and a reader wanting to discover information about topics disucussed in this book would be able to use a computer and a telephone line to extract just the information relevant to his or her needs."
6).From The Modern Frankenstein (1986)
"It is likely that we already have the ability to clone humans: this requires no genetic manipulation or profound understanding of the genetic code, it requires only the inducement of parthenogenesis (self-cell-division) to take place."
7). From Digital Business (1996)
"It is impossible to over-estimate how much the Net (and its descendants and variants, whatever they are or will be called) will alter life in the developed countries of the world.
"Every aspect of life will change for all but the most severely socially disadvantaged and within a decade, they too will start to feel its effect.
"It is not enough to think about individuals or individual computers linking via the networks. Humans don't have to be involved. Building will talk to building, conurbation to conurbation, dairy farm to milk silo, and video camera to police database.
"All such communications - which can include commands, requests, exchanges, controls, profit, loss, love and death - occur at close to the speed of light. The full ramifications cannot yet be discerned."
And wrong predictions included:
1). From Computers and Your Child (1982)
"There will be no cash in society by the year 2000."
2). From Forward 100 (1984)
"By the mid 1990s, personal computers will be so cheap they will be regarded as disposable."
And, still pending....
1). From The Modern Frankenstein (1986)
"Computer scientists are busily creating a new kind of non-biological being and super-intelligent machines will become our companions on Earth in the next century."
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